Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
