Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
